Nothing is more agonising than a government that makes a solemn commitment and then drags its feet when time comes for it to follow through with action.  What we have is a sad spectacle, somewhere between a tease and a farce: the Government of Malaysia has, in the last couple of months since announcing a decision to resume the search for MH370, shown no urgency and offered no time frame to wrap up a contract with Ocean Infinity, the company it has chosen to carry out the search.

It is hard to imagine what the sticking points are, the serious ones at least, that might point to irreconcilable differences between the contracting parties. Delays raise the demons of doubt about the sincerity of the government, as has happened on numerous occasions in the past years.

It bears recalling that an agreement with Ocean Infinity made possible the search for MH370 in 2018. It was a ‘no find, no fee’ agreement that committed Malaysia to a payout only if the search was successful. The search returned empty-handed, but for Ocean Infinity, then a fledgling company with superior underwater search and imaging technology, the search set the stage for many contracts across the world. The Government of Malaysia incurred no costs. The families remained without any answers.  

One might expect that with the benefit of the 2018 precedent, the contract with Ocean Infinity being finalised will be an improvement and motivate more firms to queue up; it cannot be encumbered by unrealistic expectations from the government or legal requirements that present hurdles rather than enable and underline good faith.

Let me go over some of the areas of the contract that have been reported or have been the subject of speculation:

1. The 15,000-kilometre search area: Why this needs to be spelt out as a boundary condition is unclear if payouts are linked to outcomes, namely, finding the plane.
2. The 15-month condition. Again, if any payouts are due only if the plane is found, what logic might be at work that explains the 15 months limit? Perhaps, some timeframe is being set considering that this is an exclusive deal, and this exclusivity cannot be in perpetuity.
3. Having a government representative on board the search vessel. What possible purpose may be served by this? What control, supervision or coordination can this representative competently exercise, and with what legitimacy? The vessel can be always tracked online. The control centre for much of its search and imaging technology is in Southampton, UK. What mischief does the government apprehend and wish to safeguard itself from?
4. What must constitute a find to qualify for the fee—the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder, the debris field, a sizeable part of the fuselage, or…? Also, is there a graded scale of payments linked to what is found and confirmed to be from MH370?
5. Is recovery of debris a component of the contract? Recovery could involve additional or different equipment and levels of difficulty.

Ocean Infinity’s search vessel, Armada 7806, is already in the vicinity of the search area in anticipation of a sign-off on the contract. There are still a few weeks in front of us that offer ‘search friendly’ weather, and no doubt, the company would have hoped to make the most of this. Contracting delays could prove costly for the company. For the next of kin, a narrowing of the search window this season will certainly feel like a cruel betrayal. There is no suggestion that the contract risks having to part with the crown jewels, and in which case, the legal vetting that has been cited to explain the delay seems a case of one or more of these: excessive caution, unreasonable conditionalities, subterranean power play, people working at cross purposes, or insidious attempts to torpedo the deal.

Each of the search ‘hotspots’ or high probability search areas in the southern Indian Ocean that Ocean Infinity is expected to scan have been recommended by teams of scientists and technologists across the world. Each is based on:

• Undisputed data pertaining to the flight (limited though), including Inmarsat data
• A set of assumptions made regarding flight path, flight parameters, fuel exhaustion and end-of-flight scenarios, etc.
• Applying specific methods, techniques, etc.

If the search is successful, depending on where the plane is found, we may be able to say with some certainty which of the above mattered. Science will be a winner.

If the search is successful and we know where the flight ended, it will be the culmination of a long campaign. Next of kin will face a sober moment of silent acceptance and the years of living in a state of ‘not knowing’ will yield to the harsh truth of a plane with 239 souls on board lost for ever, an irrefutable end. New questions may arise, but something within will have settled and that is a good thing.

Image from https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2016/03/08/questions-linger-as-malaysia-marks-two-years-since-mh370/